South Pacific Quake & Tsunami July 7 2011
LATEST: OCTOBER 22 2011
Geonet NZ records a M.4 in the Raoul Is area of the Kermadecs. No extended tsunami warning.
|The seismograph from Geonet NZ showing the drum closest to the epicenter|
CLICK TO ENLARGE
The quake at epicentre was M7.6
|The reading in NZ from the Kermadec quake - source Geonet NZ|
The unfolding aftershocks as at 12.30 pm - source Geonet NZ
A one metre high wave has been observed around Raoul Isand, to the west of the epicentre, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre feels the shock wave is most likely to travel east-west rather than north-south.
As a consequence, New Zealand may see more disturbed or strong currents rather than a recognisable wave. Either way, reports are coming in of a minimal Civil Defence presence and in places, no warning activations at the coasts, reinforcing prior indications of a poor level of preparedness, should a significant event arise.
Return for updates
Later analysis indicates that the marine threat level has further reduced, but as in the past this event ought to be regarded as a drill or preparedness opportunity.
Have located a dedicated environmental event blog run by NZ'er Rik Tindall - useful for the collection of data and visuals AND because, like me, he sees the systemic connections between remote seismic events -something traditional geoscientists say does not exist.
Tindall recommends this NZ tsunami warning website
Latest aftershock data USGS 12.30pm
One theory of solar dynamics says when the sun is in solar minimum, volcanic and seismic activity increases.
Even the insurance industry agrees with this proposal
Update 5.45 pm July 7
Geonet NZ readings at 5.45pm as aftershocks continue (total 13 so far)
Updates July 8 -
The USGS Summary Poster:
Sample view below -click for full access.
Note that UTC universal time gives July 6 event (July 7 local time)
Updated seismograph as dated local time
Update July 10The Kermadecs are hogging the limelight in terms of global seismic activity. (USGS) See the quake drum ( these links will alter and data expire over time) A USGS search shows interesting foreshock activity for June 21 (UTC) when there were 2 occasions when Christchurch had an event over M4.0, soon followed by what seems like a resonant response in the Kermadecs, both sets within 24 hours:
Christchurch M4.1 followed 2 minutes later by Kermadec M4.7
Christchurch M5.2 followed 70 minutes later by Kermadec M4.9
Note these are USGS times and assessments, not local readings
Update July 13
Today,local timesM3.7 Christchurch 4.22pm
M5.2 Kermadecs 5.06pm
Update July 15 ( Full Moon )
M3.0 Christchurch 4.14pm
M? Kermadecs approx 4.37 pmUpdate July 16
An uptick in the Kermadecs with several events over M5.0
Christchurch M4.4 11.11 am, eastern seafloor off Clifton
Update July 18M5.2 in the lower Kermadec Trench last night - details
Meanwhile in the mainland NZ volcanic zone check out the drums
Central Indonesian volcano Mt Lokon continues eruptive activity
Update July 19Kermadecs continue with regular M5+ events.
Inchbonnie drum in the Arthur's Pass alpine fault area showing regular activity, with minor red spikes on the quake drum. Could be the one to watch. (today's reading will expire in 24hrs)
Update July 20By my usual source, dream-time, 4 a.m. today, (this last occurred 2 days before the Japan tsunami, March 2011, without specific detail) have received on waking at 4a.m. a specific date of August 2 for a very significant tsunami.
Other than the exact date the only other details are:
Pacific, capital T Tsunami
I interpret this as a major tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean on August 2 2011.
My assumption is that NZ will be affected.
A later dream this morning involved my trying to leave in a hurry, but having difficulties, then viewing a normal road accessway flooded and trying to decide if it was passable.
It may be of value to regard this specific date as a time to prepare for with safety plans, if you are in a vulnerable, low-lying South Pacific location.
A Pacific tsunami event obviously entails a generating earthquake or major undersea subsidence. No indicators came through regarding this, suggesting that the tsunami is the principal event in terms of impact.
Conversely if this premonition turns out to be inaccurate, you will at least have worked through your safety routine. Inevitably, it will be needed.Update July 23
South of Fiji today (local time) M5.0, M5.2 -552-588kms deep
Kermadecs continue activity nearby.
USGS shows the region is jam-packed with activity M5+
For planetary influences related to August 2
The preceding New moon, July31 local time, has Sun-Moon Leo square Jupiter in Taurus. Jupiter is semiquare the South node, sesqui the North Node ( Gemini-Sag). Mars in Gemini is linked in forming a conjunction to the South Node -the midpoint is 1 degree from exact semisquare to Jupiter. Add in of course the Pluto-Uranus square and Mercury opposite Neptune. More aspects are visible in a theoretical time of 2am, Aug 2 northern NZ
Chiron-Neptune hug the MC opposite Mercury-Moon on the IC. (PIS-VIRG polarity)
AC is exact in aspecting the Nodes (GEM-SAG complete the mutable set)
Sun square Jupiter.
The Sun-Jupiter midpoint, 24 GEM is the Mars-S-Node midpoint.
Pluto aspects the Taurus AC just prior to this time and Venus is in tight conection to the Uranus-Pluto square.
An indicative chart, in itself, is of course no guarantee of an expected outcome, since all the energies involved have multiple complex ways of interacting. This chart does however provide interesting correspondences to the potential for a quake induced tsunami event impacting NZ
Update July 22M5.1 near Darfield Canterbury 5.39 am followed by M5.0 Kermadecs 7.12 am local time and another M5.0 after 11a.m.
Rik Tindall adds further links between recent resonating seismic activity
Kermadecs quiet so far today, but for an overall recent Pacific seismic summary go to Recent Pacific Quakes
Update July 27
Two shallow seafloor quakes M5+ Gulf of California dated July 26
Recent high readings of electron density in this region (July 28)
Update July 28Volcanic activity Hawaii
Update July 29
Several events over M6.0 since July 29:
recent summary of events over M6+ clustering around New Moon (S) = seafloor
Fiji M6.7 (S) July 29 Universal Time (UTC)
Japan M6.4 (S) July 30
Vanuatu M6.2 (S) July 31
North PNG M6.8 (S) July 31
Japan M6.2 (S) Aug 1
The Kermedec region also continues to have events over M5.0, most recently
M5.2 (S) August 1
Data source: USGS
Prior seismic history of the Kermadecs and related South Pacific plate boundary zones is quite dramatic: see USGS list
Update August 2
Certainly a lot of significant undersea activity in the South and West pacific Ring of Fire but no tsunami-generating event to report by 11a.m.
Update August 3Fiji seaflloor east of Suva 2 events M5+ today, but no tsunami generating quake has occurred as per earlier dream forecast.
Summary from USGS
Fiji M5.8 (S) Aug 2
Fiji two M5+ (S) Aug 3
Kermadecs M5.0 (S) Aug 3
Indonesia two M5+(S) Aug 3
PNG two M5+(S) Aug 3
Vanuatu M5.1 (S) Aug 3